Walnut production area in Ukraine is forecast to stabilize at 19,100 hectares (ha) for MY2021/22, following the slight decrease of production area down to 18,700 ha in MY2020/21. (note : MY is the marketing year)
State Statistical Service of Ukraine (SSSU) data analysis suggests that the growth of production area was achieved through a continuing growth of new commercial orchard planting, outpacing the retirement of older, Soviet-era orchards. Similarly, yields from newly planted varieties, managed with improved production technologies using irrigation, fertilizers, and pest and disease control, have offset the declines in production volumes resulting from scaling down of old walnut orchards.
Below is a graph that depicts the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a standardized measure of healthy vegetation. High NDVI values indicate healthier vegetation. Low NDVI values indicate low or no vegetation. Based on the year-to-year comparison of NDVI for Ukraine, presented below, FAS Kyiv has concluded that growing conditions until the beginning of September 2021 appear to be very favorable. Therefore, Post has forecast the MY2021/22 yield at a level higher than the two previous consecutive MYs.
Any deterioration of growing conditions in late September and October 2021 should have little to no impact on yields in calendar year (CY)2021. Based on the above mentioned yield assumptions, Post projects the MY2021/22 volume of walnut production to be around 133,000 MT, a 17-percent increase to the MY2020/21 estimate. Ukrainian farmers produced over 113,000 MT of walnuts for CY2019 according to SSSU’s data. Post accepts this as the production number for MY2020/21.
Source : USDA
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